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Prospective resources evaluation. uncertainties and risk.
Synthesis
Introduction to prospect evaluation:What are we talking about : concept, play or prospect? What is a geological model, definition, useful tools, level of knowledge…
What typology for a prospect : Structural, stratigraphic, combined, multi-objectives, complex, with direct Hydrocarbon Indicator (DHI)…
The evaluation processes.
Hydrocarbon In Place evaluation, how to assess uncertainties.
Probabilism vs Determinism
Uncertainty ranges, distribution type & shape for different parameters used for resources calculation (volumes):
Impact of Knowledge on uncertainties evaluation
Evaluation of static parameters: Gross rock volume, Net to gross, Porosity, saturation
Resources Evaluation: From Hydrocarbons In place to resources. Evaluation of reservoir and dynamic parameters:
Fluid characteristics, Bo and Bg, permeability, recovery factor…
Complex prospects: Multi scenarios, multi objectives, DHI, inerts contents…
Some insights on Unconventional prospects evaluation
How to evaluate the Chance of success or Risking:
Presence of a Petroleum system?
Presence of a Reservoir?
Existence of a Trap?
Impact of Knowledge on risking evaluation
Risking evaluation for complex prospects, Multi scenarios, multi objectives, DHI…
Evaluation of dependencies.
importance of prospect evaluation in the decision making process.
Valorization of a prospect.
Consistency and Assurance in prospect evaluation.
What to know about cognitive biases and how to mitigate them and avoid pitfalls.
Conclusion
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