Prospective resources evaluation. uncertainties and risk.

Synthesis

Introduction to prospect evaluation:What are we talking about : concept, play or prospect? What is a geological model, definition, useful tools, level of knowledge…
What typology for a prospect : Structural, stratigraphic, combined, multi-objectives, complex, with direct Hydrocarbon Indicator (DHI)…
The evaluation processes.

Hydrocarbon In Place evaluation, how to assess uncertainties.
Probabilism vs Determinism
Uncertainty ranges, distribution type & shape for different parameters used for resources calculation (volumes):
Impact of Knowledge on uncertainties evaluation
Evaluation of static parameters: Gross rock volume, Net to gross, Porosity, saturation

Resources Evaluation: From Hydrocarbons In place to resources. Evaluation of reservoir and dynamic parameters:
Fluid characteristics, Bo and Bg, permeability, recovery factor…
Complex prospects: Multi scenarios, multi objectives, DHI, inerts contents…
Some insights on Unconventional prospects evaluation

How to evaluate the Chance of success or Risking:
Presence of a Petroleum system?
Presence of a Reservoir?
Existence of a Trap?

Impact of Knowledge on risking evaluation

Risking evaluation for complex prospects, Multi scenarios, multi objectives, DHI…

Evaluation of dependencies.

importance of prospect evaluation in the decision making process.
Valorization of a prospect.
Consistency and Assurance in prospect evaluation.

What to know about cognitive biases and how to mitigate them and avoid pitfalls.

Conclusion

Language

English

Audience type

Petroleum industry personnel: Junior professional, Geologist, Geophysicist, Petroleum engineer or studentof Engineering school or Sciences University

Planned duration

Course development can beadapted to participants background or availability, from 3 days (condensed) to 5 days (expanded)

Support material

Paper Copy of the slides

Prerequisite

Background in Geosciences, petroleum geology or basic Petroleum Engineer knowledge

Objectives

Prospect evaluation is the basis for Oil and Gas exploration. Objectives of the course are to understand and manage the full exploration prospect evaluation process by assessing for each prospect the resources, uncertainties and associated risks. A consistent analysis is key for decision making, This course will provide a guidance for prospect evaluation and show impact on decision processes.

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